The over 4.0 Asian Card line for this game is only 1.400 on Pinnacle, making the Over 4.5 Line somewhere between 1.67-1.73 which many other bookmakers also suggest. I estimate this to be around 8-9% +EV. The referee for this game is Fabbri, averaging 4.47 yellow cards per game in his 95 game Serie A career.
