The over 4.5 line is only 1.617 on Pinnacle and 1.46 on Betfair Exchange. Referee Kabakov is very harsh and averages 4.89 yellow cards per game and 0.16 red cards in all competitions. Bookmakers expect a tight, harsh game like the AC Milan v Atletico one and I could see the outcome being the same in terms of cards.
Pinnacle counts a red card as 2 and two yellows resulting in a red as 3, while Betfair counts respectively 1 and 2 for these scenarios. This price still provides good value. Bwin, for reference, offers this for 1.90, despite counting a red card as 0.
