This bet is only 1.689 on Pinnacle. When removing the profit margin, this means a +EV (expected value) of around 5.5%. The referee is Björn Kuipers who has given 4+ cards in both his Euro games. At the same time, the general refereeing approach doesn't seem to be as lenient as in the start of the tournament. This is of course also due to the fact that teams are willing to risk everything in this stage of the tournament.
